Local bookmakers expect this year’s Super Bowl to topple the previous statewide record of $179.8 million wagered in 2022 when the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals, and it’s not just because the big game is here.
Another key factor according to those in the industry is the star-studded rosters belonging to both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. There are no shortage of players on both sides that bettors will be hungry to bet on through proposition wagers, so let’s join in on the fun and bet them all.
Here are 10 of the biggest offensive names in the game, and a bet involving each of them spanning several different markets and sports books. A peek into a bettor’s prop portfolio is telling of how they see the game going, so there’s no point in hiding in my prediction.
In fact, let’s lead off the betting with it. Give me the 49ers to beat the Chiefs 28-20 or 24-20—both exact-score props are available at 175-to-1 at the SuperBook by Westgate Las Vegas.
Here are the 10 player-prop bets.
Patrick Mahomes: Will throw an interception at -110 (i.e. risking $110 to win $100) (Boyd Sports)
The 49ers primarily rush four defenders and play zone coverage — a setup that has seen Mahomes throw 10 interceptions this season, per 4for4 Sports.
Brock Purdy:Under 31.5 pass attempts at -110 (SuperBook)
Purdy even went a half-attempt under this number in the NFC Championship Game against Detroit when San Francisco fell into a 24-7 halftime hole and were forced to throw more in a comeback attempt.
Travis Kelce: Under 72.5 receiving yards (SuperBook)
Kelce has been incredible in the playoffs, but it’s created a sell-high opportunity as this is the highest his receiving-yards prop has been in three months and the 49ers’ defense will be determined to slow him.
George Kittle: Sacramento Kings -9.5 first-half points vs. Kittle receiving yards (SuperBook)
It’s an obligation to dabble in the ever-popular cross-sport market, and the fast-paced Kings are set up for a shootout on Super Bowl Sunday against another one of the NBA’s top 10 teams in pace, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Isiah Pacheco: Christian McCaffrey -19.5 receiving yards vs. Pacheco receiving yards (SuperBook)
McCaffrey has nearly double the amount of targets to Pacheco this season—100 to 55—and the Chiefs struggle to defend running backs in the passing game. The 49ers do not.
Christian McCaffrey: 4-to-1 to score the first touchdown (Circa Sports)
Give me all the pro-McCaffrey positions as this is a big-time plus matchup for the running back. This is a chalky bet but McCaffrey was regularly around 3-to-1 to score the first touchdown in regular-season games, and some of them didn’t set up as well as getting to play against mediocre Chiefs’ rush defense.
Rashee Rice: Under 20.5 longest reception at -120 (BetMGM)
The rookie revelation is going to have plenty of opportunities, but few of them will be downfield. Kansas City primarily throws to Rice near the line of scrimmage.
Brandon Aiyuk: To have the most receiving yards in the game at +350 (i.e. risking $100 to win $350) (Caesars/William Hill)
Rice and Kelce are both priced ahead of Aiyuk (at +280 and +300, respectively) but that makes no sense based on season-long production where the 49ers’ top option was far and away the most prolific of the trio. Buy low on Aiyuk following a pair of relatively quiet playoff games.
Richie James: To score a touchdown at 11-to-1 (BetMGM)
OK, the journeyman receiver doesn’t exactly fit within the “star” distinction but the Chiefs are relatively short on weapons behind Kelce, Pacheco and Rice. They started using James more in an AFC Championship Game win over the Ravens, and love running gadget plays to their depth receivers near the end zone.
Deebo Samuel: Under 59.5 receiving yards (SuperBook)
The Chiefs have a young and athletic defensive backfield that doesn’t give up many yards after the catch—Samuel’s best attribute.
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