LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — A 50% chance of snow Friday night in the Colorado Rockies might be the last hurrah for a winter that has fallen short this year.
Current snowpack levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin hit 90% of normal on Friday. The region includes parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, providing the runoff that collects in reservoirs along the river and eventually reaches Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
And 90% is better than where snowpack stood on Monday, when it had declined to 86%. It’s been a volatile end to winter, with big swings rather than a steady increase to peak levels. Snowpack measurements — SWE, or snow water equivalent — generally peak the first week of April, when temperatures warm and more snow melts than new accumulation from snowfall.
The black line on the graph below shows 2025 SWE measurements collected at SNOTEL stations across the basin:
“Southern Nevada should expect a lean water year with less than normal streamflow predicted for the Virgin River and the Colorado River inflow to Lake Powell,” according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Nevada Water Supply Outlook Report, dated April 1 but distributed Friday afternoon. The Nevada report provides detail on the eastern Sierras and Northern Nevada, but none of that water reaches Las Vegas, which relies on the Colorado River for 90% of its water. The remaining 10% comes from wells.
Streamflow into Lake Powell for April through June is projected at 74% of normal. The Virgin River is projected to flow at 61% of normal at Littlefield, Arizona.
Water shortage levels based on end-of-year measurements at Lake Mead currently have Southern Nevada in a Tier 1 water shortage, unchanged from last year. In 2023, snowpack levels ended the winter at 160% of normal, providing a short-term rescue along the Colorado River in the 23rd year of a “megadrought.” The extra water that year built levels at Lake Mead, which had fallen to 25% of capacity. The nation’s largest reservoir is currently at 33% capacity.
Over the past two years, water conservation agreements have helped preserve levels at Lake Mead. That effort has helped stabilize Lake Mead and Lake Powell, but a below-average snowpack could bring problems seen over the past few years, particularly in the summer of 2022. That’s when Lake Mead hit its lowest point — 1,041.71 feet above sea level — since the reservoir was initially filled in the 1930s.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation — which runs Hoover Dam, Glen Canyon Dam and others that manage the water flow upstream from Lake Powell — faces a deadline at the end of 2026 to implement updated guidelines for river operations.
The path to a final decision on that plan is already seeing obstacles, with Nevada, Arizona and California challenging the choices selected by Reclamation as the Biden administration ended. Those states, known as the Lower Colorado Basin states, have asked the Trump administration to include a choice that addresses problems at Glen Canyon Dam.
There has been no public response yet.
Here’s a look at SWE measurements going into the weekend:
The best snow conditions this year occurred in Wyoming, which feeds into Flaming Gorge Reservoir and down the Green River, the Colorado River’s largest tributary. The worst conditions came in Southern Utah, including the Lower San Juan region, which reached only 15% of normal:
- Upper Green: 105%
- Lower Green: 92%
- White-Yampa: 95%
- Colorado Headwaters: 95%
- Gunnison: 82%
- Dirty Devil: 73%
- Lower San Juan: 15%
- Dolores: 73%
- Upper San Juan: 65%
(Totals as of April 4 provided by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation)
The USDA’s report indicated much better conditions for Northern Nevada.
“Snowpacks are 94-103% in the Sierra basins, 122-151% across the northern Nevada, 86% in Eastern Nevada, 88% in the Upper Colorado, and 30% in the Spring Mountains on April 1. April 1 is typically when basin snowpacks reach their highest snow water total before melt begins. This year snowmelt started early due to a week of warm temperatures between March 21-27,” the report said.
Water from snowfall in the Spring Mountains (Mt. Charleston and the surrounding area) plays an important part in recharging aquifers in the region, but it is far short of normal levels this year.
