July was a breakout month for a plethora of rookie hitters who’ve finally started to find their groove at the plate.
Was their surge enough to shake up the rookie top 10, or were their slow starts still too much to overcome?
Below are the latest rookie power rankings, which feature two players making a return to the list and another cracking the top 10 for the first time this year.
(Note: The rankings below will be updated once a month throughout the season. Also, while some outlets have Lawrence Butler, Xavier Edwards and Matt Waldron listed as rookies, they are no longer rookie eligible by MLB standards.)
Who’s surging? (honorable mentions)
Colt Keith (2B, Detroit Tigers)
Austin Wells (C, New York Yankees)
Jackson Chourio (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)
All three of these hitters have turned their rookie seasons around. Keith is the reigning American League Rookie of the Month after slugging .644 in July, though he is still hitting slightly below league average on the year. An expert framer and a patient at-bat, Wells now ranks in the top nine among rookie position players in both bWAR and fWAR. Chourio has multiple hits in nine of his past 13 games and an .872 OPS since the start of June, though the multi-talented 20-year-old is still hitting league average for the season. All three have an argument to make the list, though their slow starts at the plate can’t be completely ignored just yet.
Bumped out of top 10
Gavin Stone (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Joey Ortiz (3B, Milwaukee Brewers)
Bryan Hudson (LHP, Milwaukee Brewers)
THE TOP 10
10. Masyn Winn (SS, St. Louis Cardinals)
Previous ranking: 10
Winn is already one of the better defensive shortstops in baseball, and while he’s not the .300 hitter he was through the middle of the June, his ability to consistently make contact, put the ball in play and utilize his elite speed has helped make him one of the most valuable rookies in the sport. In addition to leading all rookies in hits, he also ranks first among all rookie position players in bWAR.
9. Tyler Fitzgerald (SS, San Francisco Giants)
Previous ranking: N/A
After bouncing up and down in May and June, Fitzgerald made himself indispensable in July as he won NL Rookie of the Month honors and became the first Giants player since Barry Bonds in 2004 to record eight home runs in a 10-game span. While he hasn’t logged enough plate appearances to qualify as a hitter yet, it’s impossible to ignore what the 2019 fourth-rounder is doing. His OPS is now over 1.000 for the year, and his 11 homers rank seventh among all rookies. In just 50 games, he is already top five in WAR among all rookie position players.
8. Mason Miller (RP, Oakland Athletics)
Previous ranking: 3
After his dazzling display at the All-Star Game, during which he struck out Shohei Ohtani and Trea Turner in a spotless inning of work to earn the win for the American League, Miller made just one appearance to start the second half — a scoreless one, at that — before breaking the pinky on his non-pitching hand when he hit a table in frustration. He should return soon, and will likely find his way climbing this list once again. His ability to miss bats puts him in a league of his own. Miller’s 45.8% strikeout rate leads all qualified relievers — both rookies and vets — by more than 7%.
7. Luis Gil (SP, New York Yankees)
Previous ranking: 7
Gil’s exceptional season hit a bump in the road at the end of June, but after surpassing his career high in innings as a pro, his bounce-back July helped mitigate concerns that he might be fatiguing. Gil got back on track last month, and his four-seamer actually gained velocity in the process (though it was his slider and changeup guiding his success). He allowed no more than five hits in any of his five July starts, and while free passes remain an issue, his ability to miss bats tends to get him out of trouble. Gil leads all rookies in both strikeouts and walks.
6. Shota Imanaga (SP, Chicago Cubs)
Previous Ranking: 6
Sure, Imanaga’s past 11 starts (5.03 ERA) haven’t been nearly as spotless as his first nine (0.84). Still, that degree of early-season success in his first season in the big leagues was probably unsustainable given his elevated home run rate in Japan and how often MLB teams put the ball in the air against him. When opponents have gotten to him, the long ball is typically a factor. But when he can keep the ball in the ballpark, he tends to put up a terrific statline. Imanaga is tied with Paul Skenes for the lead among rookie pitchers in fWAR, and he has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in 17 of his 20 starts.
5. Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox)
Previous ranking: N/A
Abreu doesn’t have the counting stats of most players on this list after missing time to injury in June, but on a rate basis, he has been one of the best rookie position players in baseball. He leads all qualified rookies in slugging and OPS, isn’t far behind in batting average, and despite the missed time, he still leads all rookies with 24 doubles. His .856 OPS this year is almost identical to what he posted in his first taste of the big leagues last year, when he registered an .862 mark in 28 games. His ability to mash makes up for the swing-and-miss in his game, and he’s also a plus defender in the outfield with elite arm strength.
4. Jackson Merrill (OF, San Diego Padres)
Previous ranking: 2
A sensational month of June, during which Merrill led all rookies with nine home runs, propelled the 21-year-old into Rookie of the Year conversations. In every other month this season, he has an OPS under .700 and has hit no more than two home runs. Still, that doesn’t mean he got lucky in June. His expected stats are better than what he has produced this year, and what he has produced is still extraordinary for a 21-year-old All-Star playing his first season in center field. Merrill has been a strong contributor across the board, leading all qualified rookies in batting average and ranking in the top three in doubles and RBI while stealing 11 bases and playing terrific outfield defense.
3. Michael Busch (1B, Chicago Cubs)
Previous ranking: 8
Busch leads all NL rookies with 15 home runs and is the only MLB rookie with an OPS over .800 in at least 300 at-bats this year. He doesn’t chase, and when he gets a pitch to hit, he has a distinctive knack for finding the sweet spot. Busch ranks in the top three among qualified rookies in home runs, doubles, runs, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS, and while his offense has lifted him to this spot on the rankings, the hit-first prospect has also graded out surprisingly well at first base.
2. Colton Cowser (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
Previous ranking: N/A
Cowser tied the Orioles’ rookie record Sunday by stretching his hitting streak to 17 games. As a result, after bouncing in and out of this year’s top 10, he now finds himself leading all AL players on our latest power rankings. Cowser is pacing the rookie field with 16 home runs, and as powerful as he is at the plate, I’m not sure he gets enough credit for how sensational he has been defensively. By outs above average, he has been one of the best outfielders in baseball.
1. Paul Skenes (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Previous Ranking: 1
Turns out, the guy who started the All-Star Game still earns the top spot here. Skenes finally looked somewhat human his last time out. That a performance in which he allowed two runs in 5.1 innings — he was through five scoreless innings Sunday before losing steam late — would constitute as anything close to a disappointment speaks to how electric his rookie season has been. It’ll be worth seeing how he holds up the rest of the way, but he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 14 starts this year and leads all qualified rookies in ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio. His only loss this year came when he pitched into the ninth inning on July 23, and he has a 1.53 ERA over his past nine starts.
Also considered: Tobias Myers (SP, Milwaukee Brewers), Ceddanne Rafaela (SS/CF, Boston Red Sox), Cade Smith (RP, Cleveland Guardians), Hunter Gaddis (RP, Cleveland Guardians), José Buttó (SP/RP, New York Mets), Spencer Schwellenbach (SP, Atlanta Braves), Hayden Birdsong (SP, San Francisco Giants), Nolan Schanuel (1B, Los Angeles Angels), Max Schuemann (SS, Oakland Athletics)
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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