LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Projections released on Wednesday for Lake Mead are far more optimistic than a year ago, showing the lake level rising almost 14 feet higher than models suggested as 2024 began.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation posted its January 24-month study, showing anticipated levels at the nation’s largest reservoir through December 2026. It’s a crucial 2-year span for water managers in the West as the government writes new rules for Colorado River water that has diminished because of climate change.
When 2027 arrives, those new rules are expected to be in place as previous rules established in 2007 expire.
On their own, the projections contained in the new 24-month study present a picture of stability. Lake Mead won’t approach last spring’s heights, but it won’t drop dramatically either.
The lake’s surface is at 1,065.07 feet above sea level (as of noon on Wednesday, Jan. 15), about 5 feet lower than it was a year ago. It is about 164 feet below “full pool.” The lake hit its highest point — 1,225.44 feet — in July 1983, less than 4 feet below full capacity.
Projections show that over the next two years, it will get as high as 1,069.60 (March 2025) and as low as 1,048.76 (September 2026).
But the projections aren’t perfect science. To show just how much the picture changes, 8 News Now looked at recent numbers and how they have shifted — higher in this case. All projections used for this story are the “most probable” numbers from Reclamation’s models.
When Reclamation released its study in January 2024, projections showed Lake Mead hitting 1,043.15 feet in September 2025. But that number improved dramatically over the months that followed. The projection that came out Wednesday shows the lake hitting 1,057.06 feet in September 2025, nearly 14 feet higher.
Why the change? There are many factors that contribute to the more optimistic estimate. Snowpack and soil moisture conditions monitored through the year help officials estimate how much water will flow down the Colorado and eventually get to Lake Mead.
Even more important over the past year: Agreements with farmers, water agencies and tribes have allowed Reclamation to keep more water in Lake Mead.
Below: The January 2025 24-Month Study, followed by the January 2024 24-Month Study.
“Our improved storage conditions at Lake Mead are due to conservation efforts taking place collectively between Reclamation and the basin states. Simple as that,” according to a Sept. 19, 2024, statement from Lower Colorado River Basin spokesman Doug Hendrix. He said recent agreements with the basin states are helping to preserve the threshold level of Lake Mead.
Officials say the projections include water savings that have been made, but it’s difficult to separate the savings from the changing climate conditions.
Those conservation efforts were made with an eye on the future of the Colorado River basin, where temperatures have climbed over the past 25 years. Scientists say there is 20% less water coming down the river than there was when a megadrought started in 2000. And they expect it to drop further.
Reclamation has been working with the seven states that rely on Colorado River water to craft the rules that will guide the river’s future. The Colorado River Compact — known as the “Law of the River” — is now more than a century old. While it remains as the basis for managing the river, officials have acknowledged that it promises more water than actually exists.
The Las Vegas valley relies on the river for 90% of its water, with the rest coming from groundwater.
