Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025 | 2 a.m.
• Who: Giants (2-13) at Raiders (2-13)
• When: 1:05 p.m.
• Where: Allegiant Stadium
• TV: KLAS Channel 8, CBS
• Radio: Raider Nation Radio 920 AM, KOMP 92.3
• Betting line: Raiders -1.5, over/under 42
Today’s matchup between inter-conference bottom-feeders might be the most significant on the Week 17 schedule from a long-term perspective.
With the teams tied for the league’s worst record, the loser has the inside track to receive the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the betting favorite to go first. Oregon passer Dante Moore is listed as the second choice, and his price could drop if he declares himself eligible.
New York might not be interested in selecting a quarterback, having just taken rookie starter Jaxson Dart in this year’s first round, but the Raiders would likely go that direction. The franchise has failed to find a suitable stopgap ever since cutting Derek Carr loose in 2022.
Both teams’ players will still be going all-out trying to secure their own futures in the league, but the fan bases on both sides probably wouldn’t mind a loss.
Favorable matchup: Raiders quarterback vs. Giants quarterback
For one of the first times this season, the Raiders appear to have an edge at quarterback. Jaxson Dart, once the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, has not been the same since returning from concussion protocol at the beginning of December. The Giants asked him to change his reckless rushing style, and he seems to be struggling with the adjustment. He bottomed out last week in a 16-13 loss to the Vikings with only 33 passing yards and an interception while completing seven of 13 pass attempts. Meanwhile, Geno Smith had one of his best games in silver and black, with 201 yards on 16-for-23 passing. Smith has talked about wanting to stick in Las Vegas and be a part of a Raiders’ turnaround. The 35-year-old will be motivated to prove it in the final two games, while the 22-year-old Dart’s future in the NFL should be more secure. Dart has been better than Smith this season, but not this month.
Problematic matchup: Giants’ defensive line vs. Raiders’ offensive line
It feels unfair to pick on the Raiders’ much maligned offensive line after it helped spring running back Ashton Jeanty to 128 rushing yards and a touchdown in a 23-21 loss to Houston while allowing Smith to get hit just three times. It was particularly impressive considering Houston’s defense is one of the NFL’s best. But now the Raiders must show the improvement wasn’t a fluke against another exceptional unit. Giants nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a constant disruptor in the middle, where the Raiders have particularly struggled since losing guard Jackson Powers-Johnson to an ankle injury. The rest of the Giants’ defensive line is formidable too. They are tied for 11th in the NFL with a 7.8% adjusted sack rate, led by veteran edge rusher Brian Burns (15 sacks). Winning the battle in the trenches defensively is the one area the Giants have prided themselves on all season.
“I don’t give a (expletive) about the pick to be honest. I don’t play for that. That’s not my job.” — Edge rusher Maxx Crosby voicing his frustration on the talk of the Raiders landing the top overall draft pick. Crosby’s season ended Saturday when the Raiders placed him on injured reserve.
•••
“Most of all, it was the intent of the guys to show who we are. I was really fired up about that part of it.” — Raiders coach Pete Carroll on his biggest positive takeaway out of the spirited Texans’ performance a week after the team was accused of quitting on the season
•••
“Jack and I, we’ve been meeting together every morning at like 7 a.m. I get Jack on the board, and I make him draw up the plays from the game plan, and I make him talk me through the reads. … The big picture of what’s going on on defense and then what we’re trying to accomplish on offense is really starting to show itself.” — Smith on Bech’s improvement in recent weeks
•••
“When he gets matched up on a linebacker, he’s pretty much going to kill him. It’s been fun to see, happy to see him out there dominating.” — Bowers on Jeanty’s progression, particularly in the pass game
Gamebreaker: Wide receiver Jack Bech
The Raiders remain confident in the future outlook for Jeanty, last year’s first-round pick, despite a largely disappointing rookie season. They seem much less sure about their second-round pick, Bech. The TCU product could use a pair of strong games to end the season to solidify his spot as a starter going into 2026. The Raiders spent much of the season hesitant to give Bech much playing time, but his workload has increased the past three weeks, as he’s been on the field for about 80% of their snaps. The results have been mixed, though Bech did have a career-high six receptions for 50 yards in a Week 14 loss to the Broncos and then his longest reception, 37 yards, to set up a Brock Bowers touchdown against the Texans. Regardless of how early it ends up picking in the draft, Las Vegas will have a number of needs to fill this offseason. Assessing Bech’s develop will determine how high wide receiver ranks on the list.
Big number: 60
That’s how many year’s it’s been since the Giants picked first overall in the draft. The Raiders have only selected first once in that span (Jamarcus Russell in 2007). Raider fans feel like it’s been an eternity since that opportunity but that drought pales in comparison to the Giants’ streak. Both teams could still mathematically pick as low as No. 7 in the 2026 NFL Draft if they win both of their remaining games, but that’s unlikely. The DVOA ratings project a 66.8% likelihood that either the Giants (35%) or the Raiders (31.8%) pick first. The Browns are the other major runner in the race at a 31.9% probability. Las Vegas has a 90.6% chance to maintain a top-five position per DVOA.
Best bet: Under 42 points
Three out of both of these teams’ past four games have gone over the total. That’s unbelievable given the degree to which both offenses are struggling. Las Vegas and New York are averaging 4.5 yards per play in December, tied for 29th in the NFL. They’ve both been a lot more respectable defensively, with the Raiders tied for fifth in the same span, limiting opponents to 5.1 yards per play and the Giants at 16th (5.4). Don’t expect an offensive outburst at Allegiant this afternoon.
