DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — NASCAR’s biggest race of the season is the Daytona 500, and it all goes down this Sunday, Feb. 16 on FOX. It will be part battle, part chess match for 200 laps — at least.
The nature of racing at Daytona International is a combination of roll-of-the-dice luck and fearless genius.
So who will win the 2025 race?
Here’s a ranking of drivers, along with insight on their chances of winning the sport’s most cherished trophy.
41. Cody Ware (Starting 28th)
Ware will be without crew chief Billy Plourde as Plourde was ejected for the weekend after his team adjusted weight in the car after tech. Tommy Baldwin, a former crew chief and team competition director, will guide the Rick Ware Racing team — which had to make significant repairs to his car after a crash in the duels. Ware was 14th in the 2023 Daytona 500, but even to finish there could be an uphill climb after a rough week.
40. Helio Castroneves (41st)
The four-time Indianapolis 500 winner is in the race with a special provisional for an elite driver who can bring a significant audience. He is driving a non-chartered car for Trackhouse and hopes a test last month at Talladega (where he primarily worked on pit stops) and his experiences this week will give him enough experience to at least make it to the end. He didn’t get that far in his qualifying race on Thursday and his team had to repair the entire front of the car for the 500.
39. Zane Smith (37th)
Smith has competed in the Daytona 500 twice, and both times he finished 13th. He does have two truck wins at Daytona (2022, 2023) so he has shown some ability to work the draft at the end of the race. But his team had to make significant repairs after the Thursday races and the car likely won’t be the same.
38. Josh Berry (29th)
Berry begins his Wood Brothers tenure knowing that the last time the series was at Daytona, Harrison Burton earned the team’s 100th victory last August. Berry still has more to learn on the superspeedways but just has to hope this race doesn’t end like his did last August when he went sliding on his roof into the inside wall.
37. Ty Dillon (seventh)
Dillon was a surprise with a fast lap in qualifying and then a third-place finish in his duel. He is back to full-time Cup racing after running seven Cup races in 2024 for Kaulig. The Kaulig program made an early name for itself for its strength at Daytona in the Xfinity Series. They are still working on finding similar success in Cup.
36. Cole Custer (30th)
Custer returns to the Cup Series after a couple of years in Xfinity, including earning the title in 2023. He has a best finish of 11th in three Daytona 500 starts. He was relatively happy with his car in the qualifying races Thursday — until a last-lap crash resulted in the team having to make major repairs.
35. Riley Herbst (24th)
The Cup rookie raced in the 2023 and 2024 Daytona 500s, so at least there is a little bit of foundation of experience for the 23XI Racing driver. He did have to go to a backup car after a last-lap crash in his qualifying race on Thursday.
34. Justin Haley (35th)
In his first points race with new Spire crew chief Rodney Childers, Haley looks to use his drafting skills to his advantage. He has four wins in Xfinity at the drafting tracks. And he won the 2019 summer race at Daytona, albeit on a pit strategy where he stayed out while most of the field pitted. And then it rained and the race never restarted. He will be in a backup car after a crash in his qualifying race on Thursday.
33. Corey LaJoie (12th)
LaJoie made the Daytona 500 in a second, non-chartered Rick Ware Racing car, and that showed he can handle himself in the draft. That’s no surprise because the superspeedways were some of his top races. He was fourth in the Daytona 500 a year ago.
32. Noah Gragson (32nd)
Gragson has his crew chief Drew Blickensderfer from last year but opens his Front Row Motorsports tenure. Gragson is used to change, though, as this will be his fourth Daytona start and with four different teams. He was ninth in the race last year. A top 10 would be a good day.
31. John Hunter Nemechek (18th)
Nemechek enters his third full-time Cup season with new crew chief Travis Mack. It was a struggle for Legacy Motor Club last year, so Nemechek hopes this is the start of better times. He has finished in the top 15 in all four of his Daytona starts.
30. Shane Van Gisbergen (26th)
SVG, as he’s known, is making his first Daytona 500 start. The three-time Supercar champion is a Cup rookie this season at Trackhouse. He finished 26th at Daytona last August. He will race a backup car after he had significant damage from a last-lap crash in his qualifying race on Thursday.
29. Ryan Preece (27th)
Preece landed at RFK Racing after the closure of Stewart-Haas Racing and looks to earn his first Cup victory in his 188th start. He is fearless and hopes that he can make a Daytona highlight, other than the one he made in 2023 with several flips.
28. Todd Gilliland (14th)
Gilliland will not have his crew chief, as Chris Lawson was ejected Wednesday night for the team adjusting weight in the car after going through tech. Engineer Kevyn Rebolledo will replace Lawson. That shouldn’t impact Gilliland too much as the race is pretty straight forward from a strategic end. Plus, Gilliland has failed to finish all three of his Daytona 500 starts, thanks to accidents (not necessarily of his own doing).
27. Daniel Suarez (36th)
Suarez has seven Daytona 500 starts, with a seventh-place finish in 2023. He’s failed to finish it five times because of accidents, and an accident Thursday will send him to a backup car for the race. The Trackhouse driver won a drafting race at Atlanta last year.
26. Jimmie Johnson (40th)
The seven-time Cup champion and two-time Daytona 500 winner (2006, 2013) will make his 22nd start in the race after qualifying in on speed. He is scheduled to race only twice this year — the Daytona 500 and Coca-Cola 600 in May. So he will want to make the best of it.
25. Justin Allgaier (19th)
Allgaier makes his debut for JR Motorsports in the Cup Series, a one-race program. He had to race his way in with a last-lap move on JJ Yeley just to make the race. This team feels like it has already won. And that could make them dangerous with a nothing-to-lose ‘tude.
24. Carson Hocevar (33rd)
Hocevar, the 2024 Cup Rookie of the Year, will make his second Daytona 500 start. Last year, an early wreck ended his day and he finished 40th. So there’s nowhere to go but up.
23. Ty Gibbs (23rd)
Gibbs seeks his first career Cup win in his first race with crew chief Tyler Allen. He has finishes of 17th and 25th in his two Daytona 500 starts. He will start the race in a backup car after damage suffered in his qualifying race on Thursday.
22. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (31st)
Stenhouse won the 2023 Daytona 500 and has two career victories at Daytona. He is known for his ability on superspeedways, with his latest triumph a win at Talladega last October. This will be the first race for this team under the Hyak Motorsports name after an ownership shift where Gordon Smith took over from Tad Geschickter.
21. Alex Bowman (38th)
Bowman has three poles and six front-row starts in the Daytona 500. This year won’t be one of them, and the Hendrick driver will be at the rear for the start of the race in a backup car. But what’s probably bigger is that he has finished top six in three of his last four Daytona races.
20. Christopher Bell (20th)
Bell doesn’t love superspeedway drafting racing. But he’s finished third in three of the last four Daytona races and third in the last two Daytona 500s. Before then, he never had a top-10 finish in the Daytona 500. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver seems to be more willing to make late moves to gain spots than earlier in his career.
19. Ross Chastain (ninth)
Chastain enters Daytona after a bit of a frustrating 2024, as he didn’t make the playoffs but then won at Kansas. The Trackhouse Racing driver was on the front row on the restart with four laps to go in the 2024 Daytona 500. If he is in the same position, he’ll need to show he can get the job done.
18. AJ Allmendinger (13th)
Allmendinger is set to start his 12th Daytona 500 and has twice finished third in the race. He has finished in the top 10 in his last four Daytona 500 starts. So he knows how to get to the finish. And if you can do that, anything can happen.
17. Martin Truex Jr. (39th)
The 2017 Cup champion has retired from full-time Cup racing but is in this race to see if he can win the Daytona 500 in his 21st start. He is reunited with former crew chief Cole Pearn as part of a Tricon Garage-fielded car with a Joe Gibbs Racing alliance. He locked himself in the race with a great qualifying lap, so things have been going well for him this weekend.
16. Kyle Busch (21st)
Busch is set to start his 20th Daytona 500. He has qualified for 21 but missed the 2015 race after suffering injuries in an Xfinity crash the day before the race. He still seeks that first victory. He rides a 57-race winless streak into the weekend, which is the longest of his career. It would be a storybook moment if the driver with 63 Cup wins earns No. 64 on Sunday.
15. Kyle Larson (22nd)
Larson might be a stud driver, but the superspeedway drafting tracks are not his jam. He has never finished in the top five at Daytona. But he was leading the 2017 race when he ran out of fuel on the last lap. And he was fourth at Talladega last October. So there is hope for the Hendrick driver, albeit with him having to come from the rear in a backup car after damage in his qualifying race on Thursday night.
14. Austin Dillon (15th)
Dillon has already shown speed in his first Daytona with new crew chief Richard Boswell. The winner of the 2018 Daytona 500, Dillon has two career victories at the track. The Richard Childress Racing driver is coming off a career-low 32nd in the standings (thanks in part to some penalties).
13. Chase Briscoe (first)
Briscoe captured the pole for the Daytona 500 in his first race with Toyota — the first Daytona 500 pole in Toyota’s history. Briscoe made the move to Joe Gibbs Racing to replace Martin Truex Jr. That might seem a little unlucky for the Daytona 500, but he’s showing that past history might not matter.
12. Erik Jones (fourth)
Jones has memories of good days at Daytona, as his first Cup victory came in the July 2018 race at the track. But then on Thursday, he thought he won his qualifying race, only to have NASCAR rule he was behind Austin Cindric when the caution came out. While last year was a miserable one for him, one of his top-10 finishes was his eighth in the Daytona 500. He has a new crew chief in Ben Beshore, who worked with Jones for a handful of races at the end of last year.
11. Tyler Reddick (11th)
Reddick has competed in six Daytona 500s and doesn’t have a top-five finish. He doesn’t have a top 10 in this race. And doesn’t even have a top 20 finish. A top-25 finish? Nope. His best is 27th and he has failed to finish five of those races. He’s certainly a better driver than that. He won a duel last year, but the racing gods don’t like the 23XI Racing driver in this race.
10. Michael McDowell (25th)
McDowell won the Daytona 500 in 2021, which was his first Cup victory in 358 starts. It is arguably the biggest win in Front Row Motorsports history, but McDowell is now with Spire Motorsports. Both McDowell and crew chief Travis Peterson moved from FRM to Spire, where McDowell expected to run well and be a team leader.
9. Ryan Blaney (16th)
Blaney finished second in the 2017 Daytona 500 and second again in the 2020 Daytona 500. But the Penske driver’s last three Daytona 500s have ended with a visit to the infield medical center. His most recent superspeedway victory came in August 2021 in Daytona.
8. Chase Elliott (17th)
Elliott won the preseason Clash at Bowman Gray. His car has some speed. The Hendrick Motorsports driver appears ready. The 2020 Cup champion has the longest driver-crew chief relationship in the garage with Alan Gustafson. Elliott has 19 career wins and no one would be surprised if he wins the 500. However, only once since 2000 has the driver who won the Clash also won the Daytona 500.
7. Chris Buescher (sixth)
Buescher won the August 2023 Cup race at Daytona, and he has won at a variety of tracks for his six career Cup wins. The RFK Racing driver doesn’t have too many enemies, so he will get help if he needs it — as long as he has a fast car.
6. Brad Keselowski (34th)
Keselowski seeks that elusive Daytona 500 victory as he makes his 16th Daytona 500 start. The RFK Racing driver and co-owner has just one top-10 finish in the last 10 Daytona 500s (with six DNFs in his last eight). But he also has been masterful at times in controlling the draft.
5. William Byron (fifth)
Byron is the defending Daytona 500 winner, and his win was his only finish better than 21st in seven Daytona 500 starts. The Hendrick driver hopes to carry some momentum from the end of last year when he finished sixth or better in the last seven races.
4. Austin Cindric (second)
Cindric starts on the front row and won his qualifying race on Thursday night. He’s had a good week at a track where he has had some of his best days. Cindric won the 2021 Daytona 500 as a rookie in just his eighth Cup start. That’s the Penske driver’s only top-10 finish in the 500. He has a fast car and doesn’t seem to do dumb things in the draft, which makes him a contender for the win.
3. Denny Hamlin (eighth)
The three-time Daytona 500 winner Hamlin seeks a historic fourth victory. Only two drivers have won more than three. He has a new crew chief, and that could be a good thing, as two of his three Daytona 500 wins have come after an offseason crew chief change. So why not think the Joe Gibbs Racing driver will win? He doesn’t have a top-10 finish in the three years of the Next Gen car in this race.
2. Bubba Wallace (third)
Wallace won his qualifying race on Thursday night and seems to just have that confidence and swagger that this is going to be a good week. He has finished second twice in the Daytona 500, so he knows what it is like to be in the mix at the end. He has a new crew chief in Charles Denike as he rides a 79-race winless streak into the weekend.
1. Joey Logano (10th)
Don’t tell the defending Cup champion that the last time a Cup champion won the Daytona 500 the following year was in 2000 with Dale Jarrett. Logano won the Daytona 500 in 2015. The Penske driver likes to show no mercy, but on the superspeedways, he needs to show a little mercy and is adept at that style at Daytona.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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