LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Vice President Kamala Harris has a narrow lead in Nevada, the second-closest race among the seven swing states in the latest Emerson College Polling/8 News Now /The Hill poll released Thursday.
With 48.1% of the vote in Nevada, Harris is just ahead of former President Donald Trump, who has 47.3% of the vote. The poll found 0.9% supporting “None of these candidates” and 2.7% undecided.
Only Michigan was closer, with Harris leading 49.2% to 49.0%.
Trump leads the other five swing states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But a separate question revealed a majority of voters in six of the seven swing states expect Harris to win in November. Neither candidate reached a majority in North Carolina.
Undecided voters in Nevada were leaning toward Harris, 41.1% to 29.4% for Trump, according to the poll.
“With the race still deadlocked and just under four weeks to go, it remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. Harris and Trump have been in a virtual tie among Nevada voters since she entered the race, taking President Joe Biden’s place as the Democratic candidate. She has led, but never outside the poll’s margin of error.
In Nevada, 900 voters who said they were “very likely” to vote in November were polled between Oct. 5-8 with a credibility interval (similar to a margin of error) of plus or minus 3.2%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration/turnout data. Party affiliations for the Nevadans in the poll closely mirror the state as a whole: 32.2% Democrat, 29.1% Republican and 38.7% Independent/other.
Among Nevada voters, men break 52% to 43% for Trump, and women break 53% to 43% for Harris, the poll shows.
The poll also asked voters about the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican challenger Sam Brown. Rosen has 50.4% of the vote compared to Brown’s 41.7%, an increase in support for Rosen compared to polling on Sept. 19 when she had 48% of the vote.
Republicans targeted Rosen in this year’s election in an effort to prevent her from winning a second term in the Senate.
The economy remains the most important issue for Nevada voters. That includes concerns about jobs, inflation and taxes. The poll showed 36.4% of Nevadans ranked the economy as the top issue, followed by affordable housing (15.0%), immigration (12.5%), threats to democracy (10.8%), education (7.9%), access to abortion (6.3%), health care (5.0%) and crime (3.4%). The biggest change in that ranking since Sept. 19: immigration has risen in importance to Nevada voters, passing education and threats to democracy to move up two places in less than a month.
The poll addressed abortion rights in a separate question: “Would you vote yes or no on Nevada Question 6, a constitutional amendment that would provide a fundamental right to abortion up until fetal viability, or about the 24th week of pregnancy?” Voters support Question 6 by a wide margin, 54.6% to 32.6%, with 12.8% undecided.
Approval ratings for Biden showed 38.4% of voters approve, 54.0% disapprove and 7.6% were neutral or had no opinion.
For Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo 36.8% of voters approve, 29.1% disapprove and 34.1% were neutral or had no opinion.
The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
